I realised, I didn't really understand double dissolutions, so I decided to have a quick internet search to find out (I'm hoping
Basically, it's an option in the constitution for dealing with a situation where you have a government that is formed in the House of Representatives (so obviously has the majority there), but may not have a majority in the Senate. If the government tries to pass a bill and the Senate rejects it, then the government tries again 3 months later (with or without amendments) and the Senate still says no, then the Governor-General (on advice from the PM) may dissolve both the House and Representatives and the Senate simultaneously, which means all seats are up for grabs in the election.
Then, if after the election the same government returns and tried to pass the same bill and the Senate still says no, the GG can convene a joint sitting of both houses to consider the bill(s). If the bill is passed by an absolute majority of total membership of the sitting, it is considered to have passed both houses seperately and is presented for Royal Assent.
There have been six double dissolutions in the past:
1914
The Liberal Cook government only had a 1 vote majority in the House, found this situation untenable so introducted the Government Preference Prohibition Bill, with the specific intention to provoke disagreement in the Houses and give grounds for a double dissolution. The Cook government was defeated at the election.
1951
This was over the Commonwealth Bank Bill, though parallel to this was Menzies attempts to ban the Community Party of Australia (which was narrowly defeated by referrendum). At the ensuing election, the Liberals were returned with majorities in both houses and the ALP was banished to the political wilderness. With respect to the banking bill, no third deadlock occurred, no joint sitting was necessary, and a different bill on the same subject subsequently became law.
1974
Over 6 bills, which notably included the introduction of what is now Medicare. This is the only one that went to a joint sitting of both houses after the Whitlam governement was re-elected, but the bills were still opposed.
1975
Basically, Fraser requested a double dissolution after the GG turfed Whitlam.
1983
This had 13 bills all bundled together, 9 of which were Sales Tax Amendment bills. There is some debate about whether the grounds were really there. The GG refused the first request for the double dissolution, saying more evidence was required that the parliment had become "unworkable". When Fraser finally got his request for a double dissolution granted, he thought he was going to be facing Bill Hayden in opposition, but earlier that morning Bob Hawke had been appointed leader of the Labor party and Labor subsequently won the election and did not pursue passage of the bills.
1987
This was over the Australia Card Bill. Labor was re-elected, but the bill later died when serious flaws in the implementation aspect where discovered.
So things the Australian Government think are worth doing a double dissolution for are:
- Because we don't have enough of a majority and it's making things unworkable (throw in a bill that's sure to cause division to meet the technical grounds)
- Banks
- Health Insurance
- Sales Tax
- A national identity card
The 1974 one is the only one that really seems to be a serious policy driven double dissolutions. The others seem to be more opportunism of the current government that's in an awkward situation to get an election to strength their position, which of course isn't guaranteed. The 1914 and 1983 ones resulted in the incumbent government being defeated. The 1951,1974 and 1987 ones resulted in the incumbent government being re-elected, but without really increaing their majority.
I reckon a double dissolution over the ETS is likely. Given the precedents, I don't think the GG would say no. I think Labor must be jumping for joy at the prospect of an election against an opposition that is so clearly divided and disorganised. Though the fact that all seats are up for grabs means that only half the votes are required to gain a seat compared to a normal election. It could mean more minor independant players come up. I'd love to see a swing towards the Greens, but sadly I think Australia has too many ultra-conservatives out there.
Interesting times.
